How Quickly Things Can Change!

Twenty four hours ago, it seemed inevitable that Republicans would go down in defeat next Tuesday. But now, thanks to John Kerry, I suspect that the election outcome will be razor-thin nationally. More importantly, several key races will now tilt against the democrats.

The hopes of a democrat victory were based largely on their view that large numbers of voters were so incensed by Republican mis-steps that they would rise up and "throw the bums out". But the tables have been turned. My prediction is that the Get Out the Vote efforts of the Republicans will be wildly successful and swamp the Democrats in a number of key races.

It's true that 25-30% of the Democrats are frothing-at-the-mouth mad at Bush, and eager to take over Congress. Many of those very same folks are in the media, too. So the drumbeat in recent weeks, including a lot of dubious polls, have trumpeted a forthcoming Democrat victory. But Kerry's comments, combined with the efficient machinery that the GOP has in place to move their people to the polls, is going to make a decisive difference.

In an off-year election, almost 60% of the eligible voters won't even vote. Under these circumstances, an energized and angry conservative base can surprise in lots of places. I believe that the Republicans will hold both houses, and win both the governorship and the senate seat in Maryland! Boy, talk about going out on a limb!

Republicans first lost their way, now losing the election

It's apparent now that the democrats will gain a small majority in the House of Representatives. I doubt that they can capture enough seats in the Senate to assume control, so we are looking at a split government. It's going to be a rancorous two years until the next election; if you thought the anti-Bush crowd was shrill up until now, you haven't seen anything yet!

But why is this happening? Our economy is prosperous and our homeland has been kept secure, probably due to the war in Iraq. Well, Dick Armey, my former representative when I lived in Texas, has a pretty good understanding of where the republicans went off the rails. Read here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701482.html

Read this article especially for a preview of the upcoming Pelosi reign.

NFL Sunday Picks for October 29

So much for home-field advantage: Seven won, five lost, including the Saints against my Ravens, which I had picked. But I also picked the Jets to beat the Browns at home and they lost, too. So, bottom-line, my season record has dropped to 32-13 (71%). I'm still picking the Vikings over the Patriots for MNF, I'm so stubborn.

Stubborn, all right. And wrong. Patriots blew the Vikings away; great defense!

After a week away (attending parents' weekend at Yale), I'm back with my most outrageous picks of the year:

This weekend the home teams will win every game with two exceptions. The Ravens will beat the Saints, and the Jets will beat the Browns (wrong!).

The other winners: Broncos (wrong!), Panthers (wrong!), Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals (wrong!) , Giants, Eagles (wrong!), Vikings (wrong!), Packers, Bears, Raiders, and Titans.

NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 15

It's a good thing I don't make my living picking NFL games! This weekend I was only 6-3, which brings my record to 25-8. Respectable, but not great. Philadelphia and Cincinnati really disappointed. The Ravens were a stretch anyway, but they're my team.

It's always challenging to keep up a great winning record, but this weekend should be an easy one. I've never seen so many obvious winners. The toughest appear to be Baltimore vs. Carolina and Philadelphia vs. New Orleans. The others look like "slam-dunks". Famous last words? We'll see; I'm going all out with nine picks:

Bengals 28, Bucaneers 10 ACTUAL: Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13

Cowboys 31, Texans 7 ACTUAL: Dallas 34, Houston 6

Eagles 34, Saints 20 ACTUAL: New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24

Steelers 26, Chiefs 14 ACTUAL: Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7

Jets 36, Dolphins 21 ACTUAL: New York 20, Miami 17

Chargers 33, 49ers 12 ACTUAL: San Diego 48, San Francisco 19

Broncos 24, Raiders 3 ACTUAL: Denver 13, Oakland 3

Bears 28, Cardinals 7 ACTUAL: Chicago 24, Arizona 23

Ravens 17, Panthers 15 ACTUAL: Carolina 23, Baltimore 21

NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 8

I was out of town until this morning. So these are hot off the press at 12:59 pm on Sunday!
Well, a nice set of predictions; six for six! Which makes me 19 and 5 YTD!

Giants 24, Redskins 14 ACTUAL: Giants 19, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Jets 27 ACTUAL: Jaguars 41, Jets 0
Saints 20, Bucaneers 12 ACTUAL: Saints 24, Bucaneers 21
Eagles 24, Cowboys 21 ACTUAL: Eagles 38, Cowboys 24
Chargers 21, Steelers 13 ACTUAL: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
Broncos 14, Ravens 10 ACTUAL: Broncos 13, Ravens 3

Yeah, I know I'm going against my Ravens. But they aren't going through the whole season without a loss, and Mile-High Stadium is too tough for the weak (still growing) Ravens offense.

Seasaw Battle Shaping Up in November

The upcoming election has been a hard one to judge, in particular because of a strong media bias against the incumbent Republican president. Just one month ago, bettors at Tradesports only gave Republicans a 38% chance of holding their House majority in the November election.

Then the Republicans went on a September tear. Just ten days ago, GOP chances had climbed to 58%. Why the turnaround? Pick your factors: falling gas prices; the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks; or maybe Hugo Chavez's rant at the United Nations.

How fast things change. Now, it's the Democrats' turn at a miracle comeback. Republican chances have slipped below 50% -- all the way to 46%. What explains the Republican collapse? The Mark Foley factor? Who knows.

Here's the good news: the most likely outcome is gridlock. When that happens, the markets historically have risen the following year by an average of 20%. In other words, if we can find a way to keep the government from doing anything, we are all better off!

NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 1

Only picking five games this week. Looks like a lot of dog games otherwise.

Prediction Results: 3 wins, 2 losses (YTD 13-5)

Ravens 20, Chargers 10; Actual: Ravens 16, Chargers 13
Browns 21, Raiders 6; Actual: Browns 24, Raiders 21
Jaguars 27, Redskins 14; Actual: Redskins 36, Jaguars 30 (OT)
Bengals 34, Patriots 13; Actual: Patriots 38, Bengals 13
Bears 21, Seahawks 20; Actual: Chicago 37, Seattle 6

They Are Really Confused in Texas!

The good folks in Texas are really confused about abortion. Considering that the right to an abortion is the “law of the land”, and murder is against “the law of the land”, Fort Worth can't seem to make up its mind about which is actually the higher law!


From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

Police are searching for a 22-year-old Fort Worth man accused of causing the death of his unborn daughter last month by repeatedly kicking his girlfriend, who was five months pregnant, in the abdomen.

Homicide detectives obtained a capital murder warrant against Jason D. Nash this month after the Tarrant County medical examiner's office ruled the death of the fetus a homicide. . . .
"The next day police were notified that the unborn fetus had died," Sullivan said. . . .

Under Texas law, a person commits capital murder if they murder an individual under six years of age. An individual is defined as a human being who is alive, including an unborn child at every state of gestation from fertilization to birth.

Is the victim in this alleged crime an unborn daughter, a fetus, an unborn fetus, an individual, a human being or an unborn child? Don't ask us, baby!

Al Qaeda Disputes Intelligence Report

While Democrats and Republicans fight over the content of an eight-month-old National Intelligence Estimate, Al Qaeda leadership is writing internal memos that bemoan the failure of their efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. It seems that their "Jihad" has run into something of a buzz-saw that has cost them thousands of followers. Funny how we hardly ever hear that in our newspapers and television news. For more about the enemy's point of view see: http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=40461

Miracle Finish Saves Ravens

Ravens Quarterback Steve McNair took control in the final 18 1/2 minutes of yesterday's game in Cleveland. He turned a certain 2-1 record, an ugly, dispiriting, bandwagon-halting 2-1, into a shiny, glorious 3-0. He didn't forget what went on with Baltimore's offense the first 41 1/2 minutes, or most of the two entire games before that -- he learned from it, he adjusted and he made it all right again. And when it was time to march from his 20-yard line into Matt Stover territory in the final three minutes on a hostile field, he made everybody around him swell with confidence, rise with anticipation, stretch that extra inch, hold a block that extra split-second -- even jump and shout and chant like college kids while the pressure is mounting and defeat is one misstep away, at the end of a game full of missteps. This what makes the Ravens different this year. This is what makes them 3-0.

For Baltimore Sun columnist David Steele's full take, read: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.steele25sep25,0,7824324.column?coll=bal-home-headlines

Today is a Special Day!

Happy Birthday to a very special gal: my wife. Isn't she beautiful? What you can't see is that she is one of the kindest, most intelligent people you will ever meet. She runs her own consulting practice, serves as a church elder, has been an outstanding ship's crew for many years, and she works overtime to keep this lucky dog out of trouble. Next month we celebrate our 24th anniversary.

NFL Sunday 9/24 Predictions

Eight games this week: Prediction Results: 5 wins, 3 losses (YTD: 10-3)

Ravens 17, Browns 7 Actual: Ravens 15, Browns 14

Bengals 27, Steelers 16 Actual: Bengals 28, Steelers 20

Bears 24, Vikings 21 Actual: Bears 19, Vikings 16

Panthers 34, Bucs 13 Actual: Panthers 26, Bucs 24

Jaguars 31, Colts 28 Actual: Colts 21, Jaguars 7

Seahawks 20, Giants 19 Actual: Seahawks 42, Giants 30

Falcons 36, Saints 21 Actual: Saints 23, Falcons 3

Patriots 30, Broncos 10 Actual: Broncos 17, Patriots 7

Status Quo Election?

From Bruce Bartlett:

"It appears that congressional Republicans have dodged a bullet. If the election had been held six weeks ago, almost certainly they would have lost control of the House of Representatives and probably the Senate, as well. Since then, they have narrowed the gap with the Democrats to where it is starting to look like a status quo election in November, with no significant changes.

According to the Real Clear Politics Website, during the first week in August, Republicans were down by double digits in almost every generic congressional poll. In such a poll, voters are not asked about specific races, but only about whether they plan to vote Republican or Democratic. Both Fox News and The Associated Press had the Republicans down by 18 percent.

Fast forward to the latest polls, and there has been a steady improvement. The average spread is down to 9.5 percent, with Fox News showing only a 3 percent advantage for the Democrats. With gasoline prices dropping sharply, President Bush effectively playing the terrorism card yet again and continuing disarray on the Democratic side, it no longer looks as if this will be a defining election, as 1994 was.

I think this is too bad. The Republicans badly need a wake-up call. They have completely broken faith with the voters who put them in power 12 years ago and become indistinguishable from the Democrats they replaced on many issues. Does anyone believe we would have more pork barrel spending if the Democrats were still in control? I seriously doubt it."

For more from Bruce, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/status_quo_election.html

Lucky Dog Welcomes Sean Quinn into World

A great and joyous event has occurred! Sean Christian Quinn arrived in Chicago to the rousing cheers of his many new relatives, of which I am one (a mere uncle). As you can see from the attached photo, he brought everything he needs to succeed. Namely, a real pair of assets! (Click on photo to see what I mean)

Ferocious Response to Pope's Comments

Now that we are in the fourth day of reaction to Pope Benedict's reference to a 14th century opinion about Islam, it might be worth noting when he actually made the comments. You see, it wasn't last Friday, the 15th. It was last Wednesday, the 13th, and it took three days for the anti-western media to stir up the pot enough to cause a "kerfuffle"and report it on Saturday and Sunday around the world. Check out the following:

http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/sep/06091805.html

NFL Sunday 9/17 Predictions

For Sunday, September 17 Prediction Results: 5 for 5

Ravens 20 Raiders 10 Actual: Ravens 28, Raiders 6

Cowboys 31 Redskins 21 Actual: Cowboys 27, Redskins 10

Falcons 19 Bucs 14 Actual: Falcons 14, Bucs 3

Vikings 27 Panthers 21 Actual: Vikings 16, Panthers 13

Jaguars 20 Steelers 17 Actual: Jaguars 9, Steelers 0

The Ravens Are Looking Super

Michael Wilbon, the football writer for the Washington Post has it right: " a bunch of teams -- 11, to be exact -- won on the road, but nobody made eyes bulge like the Ravens, who completely manhandled the Buccaneers, 27-0, in Tampa. Okay, the San Diego Chargers won on the road, too, by the same 27-0 score. But the Chargers beat the pathetic Oakland Raiders, perhaps the worst team in the league, while the Ravens beat a playoff team -- one that still figures to seriously compete for a playoff spot this season."

Read more here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-yn/content/article/2006/09/14/AR2006091401599.html

Gridiron Gang: a review

There's a great new, feel-good movie in town, starring the amazing "Rock" Johnson. Gridiron Gang is based on a true story about teenage boys in a detention center learning to walk tall (pun intended) as members of a reformatory football team. This movie is real entertainment. By that, I mean that it adheres to the first rule of good film-making: create characters the audience cares about. Combine that with some excellent game footage and a come-from-behind story line and you've got a terrific package. Go see it!

John (I coulda' bin a contenda') Kerry demonstrates what a fool is

“I think the American people can understand I lost to a lie about Iraq and lie about me personally,” Kerry said while en route to Iowa. “I think people will say, Kerry was right about the war, he was right about health care, he was right about energy policy.

“I think people wouldn’t mind having a president who knows how to get it right,” he added.

For more nonsense, see: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200660915034

Dog at the wheel