How Quickly Things Can Change!

Twenty four hours ago, it seemed inevitable that Republicans would go down in defeat next Tuesday. But now, thanks to John Kerry, I suspect that the election outcome will be razor-thin nationally. More importantly, several key races will now tilt against the democrats.

The hopes of a democrat victory were based largely on their view that large numbers of voters were so incensed by Republican mis-steps that they would rise up and "throw the bums out". But the tables have been turned. My prediction is that the Get Out the Vote efforts of the Republicans will be wildly successful and swamp the Democrats in a number of key races.

It's true that 25-30% of the Democrats are frothing-at-the-mouth mad at Bush, and eager to take over Congress. Many of those very same folks are in the media, too. So the drumbeat in recent weeks, including a lot of dubious polls, have trumpeted a forthcoming Democrat victory. But Kerry's comments, combined with the efficient machinery that the GOP has in place to move their people to the polls, is going to make a decisive difference.

In an off-year election, almost 60% of the eligible voters won't even vote. Under these circumstances, an energized and angry conservative base can surprise in lots of places. I believe that the Republicans will hold both houses, and win both the governorship and the senate seat in Maryland! Boy, talk about going out on a limb!

Republicans first lost their way, now losing the election

It's apparent now that the democrats will gain a small majority in the House of Representatives. I doubt that they can capture enough seats in the Senate to assume control, so we are looking at a split government. It's going to be a rancorous two years until the next election; if you thought the anti-Bush crowd was shrill up until now, you haven't seen anything yet!

But why is this happening? Our economy is prosperous and our homeland has been kept secure, probably due to the war in Iraq. Well, Dick Armey, my former representative when I lived in Texas, has a pretty good understanding of where the republicans went off the rails. Read here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701482.html

Read this article especially for a preview of the upcoming Pelosi reign.

NFL Sunday Picks for October 29

So much for home-field advantage: Seven won, five lost, including the Saints against my Ravens, which I had picked. But I also picked the Jets to beat the Browns at home and they lost, too. So, bottom-line, my season record has dropped to 32-13 (71%). I'm still picking the Vikings over the Patriots for MNF, I'm so stubborn.

Stubborn, all right. And wrong. Patriots blew the Vikings away; great defense!

After a week away (attending parents' weekend at Yale), I'm back with my most outrageous picks of the year:

This weekend the home teams will win every game with two exceptions. The Ravens will beat the Saints, and the Jets will beat the Browns (wrong!).

The other winners: Broncos (wrong!), Panthers (wrong!), Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals (wrong!) , Giants, Eagles (wrong!), Vikings (wrong!), Packers, Bears, Raiders, and Titans.

NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 15

It's a good thing I don't make my living picking NFL games! This weekend I was only 6-3, which brings my record to 25-8. Respectable, but not great. Philadelphia and Cincinnati really disappointed. The Ravens were a stretch anyway, but they're my team.

It's always challenging to keep up a great winning record, but this weekend should be an easy one. I've never seen so many obvious winners. The toughest appear to be Baltimore vs. Carolina and Philadelphia vs. New Orleans. The others look like "slam-dunks". Famous last words? We'll see; I'm going all out with nine picks:

Bengals 28, Bucaneers 10 ACTUAL: Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13

Cowboys 31, Texans 7 ACTUAL: Dallas 34, Houston 6

Eagles 34, Saints 20 ACTUAL: New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24

Steelers 26, Chiefs 14 ACTUAL: Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7

Jets 36, Dolphins 21 ACTUAL: New York 20, Miami 17

Chargers 33, 49ers 12 ACTUAL: San Diego 48, San Francisco 19

Broncos 24, Raiders 3 ACTUAL: Denver 13, Oakland 3

Bears 28, Cardinals 7 ACTUAL: Chicago 24, Arizona 23

Ravens 17, Panthers 15 ACTUAL: Carolina 23, Baltimore 21

NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 8

I was out of town until this morning. So these are hot off the press at 12:59 pm on Sunday!
Well, a nice set of predictions; six for six! Which makes me 19 and 5 YTD!

Giants 24, Redskins 14 ACTUAL: Giants 19, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Jets 27 ACTUAL: Jaguars 41, Jets 0
Saints 20, Bucaneers 12 ACTUAL: Saints 24, Bucaneers 21
Eagles 24, Cowboys 21 ACTUAL: Eagles 38, Cowboys 24
Chargers 21, Steelers 13 ACTUAL: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
Broncos 14, Ravens 10 ACTUAL: Broncos 13, Ravens 3

Yeah, I know I'm going against my Ravens. But they aren't going through the whole season without a loss, and Mile-High Stadium is too tough for the weak (still growing) Ravens offense.

Seasaw Battle Shaping Up in November

The upcoming election has been a hard one to judge, in particular because of a strong media bias against the incumbent Republican president. Just one month ago, bettors at Tradesports only gave Republicans a 38% chance of holding their House majority in the November election.

Then the Republicans went on a September tear. Just ten days ago, GOP chances had climbed to 58%. Why the turnaround? Pick your factors: falling gas prices; the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks; or maybe Hugo Chavez's rant at the United Nations.

How fast things change. Now, it's the Democrats' turn at a miracle comeback. Republican chances have slipped below 50% -- all the way to 46%. What explains the Republican collapse? The Mark Foley factor? Who knows.

Here's the good news: the most likely outcome is gridlock. When that happens, the markets historically have risen the following year by an average of 20%. In other words, if we can find a way to keep the government from doing anything, we are all better off!