Too many people think that the threat from Islamic fundamentalism is suicide planes. That is a mistake. It is highly doubtful that the Jihaddis have in mind to defeat the West through a series of terror attacks; their goals are much more ambitious. They seek to place the whole world under Sharia law, i.e., make illegal any act that does not conform to their interpretation of the Koran. To accomplish this, they must first reduce the governments of the West, including the United States, to a position of immobility and irrelevance in foreign affairs. The War in Iraq has provided them with a starting point, and our democratic system of government has provided the means by which they can accomplish this goal. Last week's election results have de-fanged the American government. Bush and his successors will be unable to conduct even a defensive military operation until it threatens U.S. citizens on U.S. soil. Even a response to attacks here will be severely muted as we attempt to return to the time when terrorism was treated as a strictly criminal matter. This gives our enemies ample time to begin step-by-step takeovers of smaller, then larger communities, first in Europe, then in the U.S., through "democratic" action.
This forecast should not be taken lightly. With our government paralyzed around the world, the Jihaddis have an open pathway --if they are patient-- to accomplishing all their aims. Mark Steyn says it well in his most recent column:
"What does it mean when the world's hyperpower, responsible for 40 percent of the planet's military spending, decides that it cannot withstand a guerrilla war with historically low casualties against a ragbag of local insurgents and imported terrorists? You can call it "redeployment" or "exit strategy" or "peace with honor" but, by the time it's announced on al-Jazeera, you can pretty much bet that whatever official euphemism was agreed on back in Washington will have been lost in translation.
"As it is, we're in a very dark place right now. It has been a long time since America unambiguously won a war, and to choose to lose Iraq would be an act of such parochial self-indulgence that the American moment would not endure, and would not deserve to. Europe is becoming semi-Muslim, Third World basket-case states are going nuclear, and, for all that 40 percent of planetary military spending, America can't muster the will to take on pipsqueak enemies. We think we can just call off the game early, and go back home and watch TV.
"It doesn't work like that. Whatever it started out as, Iraq is a test of American seriousness. And, if the Great Satan can't win in Vietnam or Iraq, where can it win? That's how China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Venezuela and a whole lot of others look at it. "These Colors Don't Run" is a fine T-shirt slogan, but in reality these colors have spent 40 years running from the jungles of Southeast Asia, the helicopters in the Persian desert, the streets of Mogadishu. ... To add the sands of Mesopotamia to the list will be an act of weakness from which America will never recover."
-- Mark Steyn, November 12, 2006
Sunday, November 12, 2006
Friday, November 10, 2006
NFL Sunday Picks for November 12
Final results below in color. My picks were so-so; four for eight. My year-to-date average drops a few more points to 61% (41-26).
After last week, when I dropped from 71% overall to 65% overall in my picks so far this season, I've decided to go a little more conservative:
Ravens 24, Titans 6
Ravens 27, Titans 26
Patriots 28, Jets 23
Patriots 14, Jets 17
Eagles 19, Redskins 17
Eagles 27, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Texans 10
Jaguars 10, Texans 13
Cowboys 27, Cardinals 14
Cowboys 27, Cardinals 10
Bengals 18, Chargers 17
Bengals 41, Chargers 49
Giants 25, Bears 20
Giants 20, Bears 38
Panthers 21, Buccaneers 17
Panthers 24, Buccaneers 10
After last week, when I dropped from 71% overall to 65% overall in my picks so far this season, I've decided to go a little more conservative:
Ravens 24, Titans 6
Ravens 27, Titans 26
Patriots 28, Jets 23
Patriots 14, Jets 17
Eagles 19, Redskins 17
Eagles 27, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Texans 10
Jaguars 10, Texans 13
Cowboys 27, Cardinals 14
Cowboys 27, Cardinals 10
Bengals 18, Chargers 17
Bengals 41, Chargers 49
Giants 25, Bears 20
Giants 20, Bears 38
Panthers 21, Buccaneers 17
Panthers 24, Buccaneers 10
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
What This All Means
As I sit here, in gloomy contemplation of the Democrats' overwhelming victories coast to coast, I have to remember the sage advice of the wise old man to the young king, "No matter how good or bad this is, my son, it too shall pass."
After some reflection, however, I have come to see this election as much more important than I previously had thought. Now that the returns are in, no one can deny that the War in Iraq was the over-riding issue. What that means is pretty significant. Because what that means is that the United States will not be able to use military force outside of its own territory for at least 40 years; i.e., until long after I am gone.
Why do I say this? Well, two reasons. First, the history of America is fundamentally isolationist. We rarely engaged in wars overseas (notwithstanding a number of minor military "police" actions), and each one was very unpopular at home. All except World War II, and I think that one was only different because our alliance with Joe Stalin kept all the left-wing kooks and communists quiet. Our preference is that we stay home and let what the worst among us called the "nips" or the "krauts" or the "frogs" or the "gooks" or the "towel-heads" kill each other off. What yesterday's election confirmed for me was that the War in Iraq has lost almost all of its support simply because we can't see any reason for interfering in another crappy war between stupid, uncivilized tribes in a part of the world we don't even want to visit, let alone save.
The second reason is even more significant. In the past three years the Democrats have taught a lesson on how you can take a messy military situation and turn it to political advantage with the cooperation of a compliant, left-leaning media. Trust me, the Republicans have learned the lesson. What this means is that whatever military action is proposed by a future democrat leader (President Pelosi, anyone?) will be used just as ruthlessly against the Democrats as the War in Iraq was used against the Republicans. You see, "permission has been granted" by the behavior of the Democrats. And they know it. Democrats will be, if you can pardon the expression, "gun-shy" for at least a generation.
Now for the long-term result. From now on our foreign policy will be strictly "cash and carry". Since we can no longer back up our diplomacy with military action, our only option will be bribery. It won't take long for various adversaries to figure this out. Even before the end of the Bush presidency, you will hear talk about gigantic financial aid programs and bail-outs (so-called third world "debt relief"). If we don't come across, our citizens and others will pay with their lives, as it becomes open season on American tourists. Look for this to spread widely over the next 10-15 years. There was a time when we would threaten action against a government that permitted such misbehavior, but the Speak Softly approach to diplomacy only works if you are willing to use a Big Stick. Yesterday, American voters said to their political class, "don't use a Big Stick if it costs a lot of money and the lives of a lot of soldiers". That is how the rest of the world will read it.
Congress will not be able to force the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but the handwriting is on the wall. No intelligent Iraqi is going to hang around until 2008 to see if Bush can pull off a miracle against the foaming-at-the-mouth anti-war crowd. Without these key people, no Iraqi government can succeed. Chaos will result within months, and the U.S. will have no choice but to force some sort of partitioning, keeping the vicious Sunni Triangle and Bagdad separate. Once the Iranian-backed thugs move in, it'll just be a matter of time before this terrorist enclave begins blackmailing its neighbors. We will be powerless to help. The next president will order the evacuation of the last troops before the summer of 2009.
But Americans will be happy. The war will be over, social spending will rise as tax dollars stop flowing to the military (look for a hell of a fight in 2007 on the DOD budget), and very few of our citizens will be threatened in this country. Of course, we will watch with interest as the Islamization of Europe begins to accelerate. But, so what? The what the English called the "wogs", the "wops" and the "spics" should look after themselves anyway. Who are we? Our brothers' keeper?
Incidentally, one other event will occur before the end of the next administration: the elimination of Israel. Without U.S. military capabilities behind them, the Israeli military doesn't stand a chance against the newer, more virulent forms of guerrilla warfare that Iran is designing. I project the last jew will be out of the Middle East by 2015.
But Americans will be happy. Who wants to worry about the Middle East and all their problems, anyway. OPEC will continue to sell us as much oil as we want, at somewhat higher prices than we now enjoy perhaps. But $100 a barrel won't present much of a problem, will it? We've already tested $78. This'll just give our beaurocrats in Washington more reason to impose mandatory gas rationing, ethanol subsidies, and alternative energy programs on every one of us. For our own good, of course.
So it's not a pretty picture, is it? But as a people we have always favored delaying any action to deal with long-term problems. When our Constitutional Convention punted on the question of slavery in 1789, it just kicked the issue down the calendar about seventy years. The result was the bloodiest war in fifteen centuries. But up to then, everyone was happy until Lincoln came along. Oh, by the way, they called it "Mr. Lincoln's War" in the north, and the Democrat that almost beat him in 1864 was a former Union general that some thought was a war hero.
Islamic fundamentalism is the number one long-term problem in the world today. More important than "global warming" (which is a hoax on the order of medieval alchemy), AIDS, or breast cancer. But who wants to wear a black ribbon in recognition of all the people who have had their heads cut off, or who have been blown up by IEDs? For that matter, who even cares about what happened on September 11, 2001? The passage of time has dimmed our memories, and the passage of more time will ensure that when Islamic Sharia law is granted to the citizens of Ontario, Canada, or Deaborn, Michigan, there will be members of the Democratic party to claim that it is just another way of supporting family values.
This is all going to happen, my friends, because yesterday the United States foreign policy was castrated by the election of 2006. Mark the date.
At some point in the future, I will post a discourse on what effect this will have on China, the only other major power left in the world. All I can say at this point is, get your kids into Chinese language lessons soon.
After some reflection, however, I have come to see this election as much more important than I previously had thought. Now that the returns are in, no one can deny that the War in Iraq was the over-riding issue. What that means is pretty significant. Because what that means is that the United States will not be able to use military force outside of its own territory for at least 40 years; i.e., until long after I am gone.
Why do I say this? Well, two reasons. First, the history of America is fundamentally isolationist. We rarely engaged in wars overseas (notwithstanding a number of minor military "police" actions), and each one was very unpopular at home. All except World War II, and I think that one was only different because our alliance with Joe Stalin kept all the left-wing kooks and communists quiet. Our preference is that we stay home and let what the worst among us called the "nips" or the "krauts" or the "frogs" or the "gooks" or the "towel-heads" kill each other off. What yesterday's election confirmed for me was that the War in Iraq has lost almost all of its support simply because we can't see any reason for interfering in another crappy war between stupid, uncivilized tribes in a part of the world we don't even want to visit, let alone save.
The second reason is even more significant. In the past three years the Democrats have taught a lesson on how you can take a messy military situation and turn it to political advantage with the cooperation of a compliant, left-leaning media. Trust me, the Republicans have learned the lesson. What this means is that whatever military action is proposed by a future democrat leader (President Pelosi, anyone?) will be used just as ruthlessly against the Democrats as the War in Iraq was used against the Republicans. You see, "permission has been granted" by the behavior of the Democrats. And they know it. Democrats will be, if you can pardon the expression, "gun-shy" for at least a generation.
Now for the long-term result. From now on our foreign policy will be strictly "cash and carry". Since we can no longer back up our diplomacy with military action, our only option will be bribery. It won't take long for various adversaries to figure this out. Even before the end of the Bush presidency, you will hear talk about gigantic financial aid programs and bail-outs (so-called third world "debt relief"). If we don't come across, our citizens and others will pay with their lives, as it becomes open season on American tourists. Look for this to spread widely over the next 10-15 years. There was a time when we would threaten action against a government that permitted such misbehavior, but the Speak Softly approach to diplomacy only works if you are willing to use a Big Stick. Yesterday, American voters said to their political class, "don't use a Big Stick if it costs a lot of money and the lives of a lot of soldiers". That is how the rest of the world will read it.
Congress will not be able to force the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq, but the handwriting is on the wall. No intelligent Iraqi is going to hang around until 2008 to see if Bush can pull off a miracle against the foaming-at-the-mouth anti-war crowd. Without these key people, no Iraqi government can succeed. Chaos will result within months, and the U.S. will have no choice but to force some sort of partitioning, keeping the vicious Sunni Triangle and Bagdad separate. Once the Iranian-backed thugs move in, it'll just be a matter of time before this terrorist enclave begins blackmailing its neighbors. We will be powerless to help. The next president will order the evacuation of the last troops before the summer of 2009.
But Americans will be happy. The war will be over, social spending will rise as tax dollars stop flowing to the military (look for a hell of a fight in 2007 on the DOD budget), and very few of our citizens will be threatened in this country. Of course, we will watch with interest as the Islamization of Europe begins to accelerate. But, so what? The what the English called the "wogs", the "wops" and the "spics" should look after themselves anyway. Who are we? Our brothers' keeper?
Incidentally, one other event will occur before the end of the next administration: the elimination of Israel. Without U.S. military capabilities behind them, the Israeli military doesn't stand a chance against the newer, more virulent forms of guerrilla warfare that Iran is designing. I project the last jew will be out of the Middle East by 2015.
But Americans will be happy. Who wants to worry about the Middle East and all their problems, anyway. OPEC will continue to sell us as much oil as we want, at somewhat higher prices than we now enjoy perhaps. But $100 a barrel won't present much of a problem, will it? We've already tested $78. This'll just give our beaurocrats in Washington more reason to impose mandatory gas rationing, ethanol subsidies, and alternative energy programs on every one of us. For our own good, of course.
So it's not a pretty picture, is it? But as a people we have always favored delaying any action to deal with long-term problems. When our Constitutional Convention punted on the question of slavery in 1789, it just kicked the issue down the calendar about seventy years. The result was the bloodiest war in fifteen centuries. But up to then, everyone was happy until Lincoln came along. Oh, by the way, they called it "Mr. Lincoln's War" in the north, and the Democrat that almost beat him in 1864 was a former Union general that some thought was a war hero.
Islamic fundamentalism is the number one long-term problem in the world today. More important than "global warming" (which is a hoax on the order of medieval alchemy), AIDS, or breast cancer. But who wants to wear a black ribbon in recognition of all the people who have had their heads cut off, or who have been blown up by IEDs? For that matter, who even cares about what happened on September 11, 2001? The passage of time has dimmed our memories, and the passage of more time will ensure that when Islamic Sharia law is granted to the citizens of Ontario, Canada, or Deaborn, Michigan, there will be members of the Democratic party to claim that it is just another way of supporting family values.
This is all going to happen, my friends, because yesterday the United States foreign policy was castrated by the election of 2006. Mark the date.
At some point in the future, I will post a discourse on what effect this will have on China, the only other major power left in the world. All I can say at this point is, get your kids into Chinese language lessons soon.
Monday, November 06, 2006
Here's a Democrat that Agrees with me!
November 06, 2006
The Only Issue This Election Day by Orson Scott Card
There is only one issue in this election that will matter five or ten years from now, and that's the War on Terror.
And the success of the War on Terror now teeters on the fulcrum of this election.
If control of the House passes into Democratic hands, there are enough withdraw-on-a-timetable Democrats in positions of prominence that it will not only seem to be a victory for our enemies, it will be one.
Unfortunately, the opposite is not the case -- if the Republican Party remains in control of both houses of Congress there is no guarantee that the outcome of the present war will be favorable for us or anyone else. But at least there will be a chance.
I say this as a Democrat, for whom the Republican domination of government threatens many values that I hold to be important to America's role as a light among nations.
To read the rest of what Orson Scott Card has to say, go here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/11/the_only_issue_this_election_d.html
The Only Issue This Election Day by Orson Scott Card
There is only one issue in this election that will matter five or ten years from now, and that's the War on Terror.
And the success of the War on Terror now teeters on the fulcrum of this election.
If control of the House passes into Democratic hands, there are enough withdraw-on-a-timetable Democrats in positions of prominence that it will not only seem to be a victory for our enemies, it will be one.
Unfortunately, the opposite is not the case -- if the Republican Party remains in control of both houses of Congress there is no guarantee that the outcome of the present war will be favorable for us or anyone else. But at least there will be a chance.
I say this as a Democrat, for whom the Republican domination of government threatens many values that I hold to be important to America's role as a light among nations.
To read the rest of what Orson Scott Card has to say, go here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/11/the_only_issue_this_election_d.html
Saturday, November 04, 2006
This Election is All About the War on Terror
As much as most democrats want the election tomorrow to be about their hated enemy, George Bush, our votes are really about the future of Western culture. Today, a heroic handful of our fellow citizens are fighting like hell in Iraq to pin down the most dangerous enemy we have faced sinced World War II. Of course, the party out of power wants to use our difficulties there to get back into power. But they have no idea what to if they are put back at the controls. I would no more want Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Shumer in charge of our foreign policy than I would have them pilot the 737 I plan to board in two weeks for a flight to Chicago. Things can always go more smoothly in Iraq, I have no doubt. But for the life of me, I can't understand why anyone thinks the party that spawned John Kerry would be able to accomplish that.
Toronto Sun columnist Rachel Marsden says it better than I do, so check it out : http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Marsden_Rachel/2006/11/04/2231233-sun.html
Toronto Sun columnist Rachel Marsden says it better than I do, so check it out : http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Marsden_Rachel/2006/11/04/2231233-sun.html
NFL Sunday Picks for November 5
I got hammered! More wrong than right for the first time this season. I think next week I'll do a little sand-bagging.
It's very tempting to pick several "sure" things: Seahawks, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Giants and Falcons. All should win without a sweat. But those games are not worthy of Captain Lucky Dog's attention. Let's look at the tough ones:
Ravens 24, Bengals 23
Ravens 26, Bengals 20
Bills 17, Packers 10
Bills 24, Packers 10
Cowboys 33, Redskins 27
Cowboys 19, Redskins 22
Rams 28, Chiefs 24
Rams 17, Chiefs 31
Steelers 17, Broncos 13
Steelers 20, Broncos 31
Patriots 20, Colts 17
Patriots 20, Colts 27
Jaguars 30, Titans 20
Jaguars 37, Titans 7
Bucaneers 27, Saints 21
Bucaneers 14, Saints 31
It's very tempting to pick several "sure" things: Seahawks, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Giants and Falcons. All should win without a sweat. But those games are not worthy of Captain Lucky Dog's attention. Let's look at the tough ones:
Ravens 24, Bengals 23
Ravens 26, Bengals 20
Bills 17, Packers 10
Bills 24, Packers 10
Cowboys 33, Redskins 27
Cowboys 19, Redskins 22
Rams 28, Chiefs 24
Rams 17, Chiefs 31
Steelers 17, Broncos 13
Steelers 20, Broncos 31
Patriots 20, Colts 17
Patriots 20, Colts 27
Jaguars 30, Titans 20
Jaguars 37, Titans 7
Bucaneers 27, Saints 21
Bucaneers 14, Saints 31
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Who is John Kerry?
Nothing that the Republican Party could dream up at the last minute will be as successful as the incredible stupidity of John Kerry. Victor Davis Hanson says it best in his recent blog comment:
"How could John Kerry, born into privilege, and then marrying and divorcing and marrying out of and back into greater inherited wealth, lecture anyone at a city college about the ingredients for success in America? If he were to give personal advice about making it, it would have to be to marry rich women. Nothing he has accomplished as a senator or candidate reveals either much natural intelligence or singular education. Today, Democrats must be wondering why they have embraced an overrated empty suit, and ostracized a real talent like Joe Lieberman."
The entire blog from Hanson is well worth reading: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmEzZGYwYzk0ZDE3YTM0NjY4MmY3Nzg3NDNjNzM5MjY=
As I said yesterday, perhaps wishfully, I see this monumental gaffe from Senator Kerry revealing to the American people what fools the democrats are. This is the best way to suppress the democrat voter turnout; more than a few democrats will be ashamed to vote for these idiots even though they don't like Bush or his Republican colleagues.
"How could John Kerry, born into privilege, and then marrying and divorcing and marrying out of and back into greater inherited wealth, lecture anyone at a city college about the ingredients for success in America? If he were to give personal advice about making it, it would have to be to marry rich women. Nothing he has accomplished as a senator or candidate reveals either much natural intelligence or singular education. Today, Democrats must be wondering why they have embraced an overrated empty suit, and ostracized a real talent like Joe Lieberman."
The entire blog from Hanson is well worth reading: http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YmEzZGYwYzk0ZDE3YTM0NjY4MmY3Nzg3NDNjNzM5MjY=
As I said yesterday, perhaps wishfully, I see this monumental gaffe from Senator Kerry revealing to the American people what fools the democrats are. This is the best way to suppress the democrat voter turnout; more than a few democrats will be ashamed to vote for these idiots even though they don't like Bush or his Republican colleagues.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
How Quickly Things Can Change!
Twenty four hours ago, it seemed inevitable that Republicans would go down in defeat next Tuesday. But now, thanks to John Kerry, I suspect that the election outcome will be razor-thin nationally. More importantly, several key races will now tilt against the democrats.
The hopes of a democrat victory were based largely on their view that large numbers of voters were so incensed by Republican mis-steps that they would rise up and "throw the bums out". But the tables have been turned. My prediction is that the Get Out the Vote efforts of the Republicans will be wildly successful and swamp the Democrats in a number of key races.
It's true that 25-30% of the Democrats are frothing-at-the-mouth mad at Bush, and eager to take over Congress. Many of those very same folks are in the media, too. So the drumbeat in recent weeks, including a lot of dubious polls, have trumpeted a forthcoming Democrat victory. But Kerry's comments, combined with the efficient machinery that the GOP has in place to move their people to the polls, is going to make a decisive difference.
In an off-year election, almost 60% of the eligible voters won't even vote. Under these circumstances, an energized and angry conservative base can surprise in lots of places. I believe that the Republicans will hold both houses, and win both the governorship and the senate seat in Maryland! Boy, talk about going out on a limb!
The hopes of a democrat victory were based largely on their view that large numbers of voters were so incensed by Republican mis-steps that they would rise up and "throw the bums out". But the tables have been turned. My prediction is that the Get Out the Vote efforts of the Republicans will be wildly successful and swamp the Democrats in a number of key races.
It's true that 25-30% of the Democrats are frothing-at-the-mouth mad at Bush, and eager to take over Congress. Many of those very same folks are in the media, too. So the drumbeat in recent weeks, including a lot of dubious polls, have trumpeted a forthcoming Democrat victory. But Kerry's comments, combined with the efficient machinery that the GOP has in place to move their people to the polls, is going to make a decisive difference.
In an off-year election, almost 60% of the eligible voters won't even vote. Under these circumstances, an energized and angry conservative base can surprise in lots of places. I believe that the Republicans will hold both houses, and win both the governorship and the senate seat in Maryland! Boy, talk about going out on a limb!
Monday, October 30, 2006
Republicans first lost their way, now losing the election
It's apparent now that the democrats will gain a small majority in the House of Representatives. I doubt that they can capture enough seats in the Senate to assume control, so we are looking at a split government. It's going to be a rancorous two years until the next election; if you thought the anti-Bush crowd was shrill up until now, you haven't seen anything yet!
But why is this happening? Our economy is prosperous and our homeland has been kept secure, probably due to the war in Iraq. Well, Dick Armey, my former representative when I lived in Texas, has a pretty good understanding of where the republicans went off the rails. Read here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701482.html
Read this article especially for a preview of the upcoming Pelosi reign.
But why is this happening? Our economy is prosperous and our homeland has been kept secure, probably due to the war in Iraq. Well, Dick Armey, my former representative when I lived in Texas, has a pretty good understanding of where the republicans went off the rails. Read here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/27/AR2006102701482.html
Read this article especially for a preview of the upcoming Pelosi reign.
Saturday, October 28, 2006
NFL Sunday Picks for October 29
So much for home-field advantage: Seven won, five lost, including the Saints against my Ravens, which I had picked. But I also picked the Jets to beat the Browns at home and they lost, too. So, bottom-line, my season record has dropped to 32-13 (71%). I'm still picking the Vikings over the Patriots for MNF, I'm so stubborn.
Stubborn, all right. And wrong. Patriots blew the Vikings away; great defense!
After a week away (attending parents' weekend at Yale), I'm back with my most outrageous picks of the year:
This weekend the home teams will win every game with two exceptions. The Ravens will beat the Saints, and the Jets will beat the Browns (wrong!).
The other winners: Broncos (wrong!), Panthers (wrong!), Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals (wrong!) , Giants, Eagles (wrong!), Vikings (wrong!), Packers, Bears, Raiders, and Titans.
Stubborn, all right. And wrong. Patriots blew the Vikings away; great defense!
After a week away (attending parents' weekend at Yale), I'm back with my most outrageous picks of the year:
This weekend the home teams will win every game with two exceptions. The Ravens will beat the Saints, and the Jets will beat the Browns (wrong!).
The other winners: Broncos (wrong!), Panthers (wrong!), Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals (wrong!) , Giants, Eagles (wrong!), Vikings (wrong!), Packers, Bears, Raiders, and Titans.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 15
It's a good thing I don't make my living picking NFL games! This weekend I was only 6-3, which brings my record to 25-8. Respectable, but not great. Philadelphia and Cincinnati really disappointed. The Ravens were a stretch anyway, but they're my team.
It's always challenging to keep up a great winning record, but this weekend should be an easy one. I've never seen so many obvious winners. The toughest appear to be Baltimore vs. Carolina and Philadelphia vs. New Orleans. The others look like "slam-dunks". Famous last words? We'll see; I'm going all out with nine picks:
Bengals 28, Bucaneers 10 ACTUAL: Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13
Cowboys 31, Texans 7 ACTUAL: Dallas 34, Houston 6
Eagles 34, Saints 20 ACTUAL: New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24
Steelers 26, Chiefs 14 ACTUAL: Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7
Jets 36, Dolphins 21 ACTUAL: New York 20, Miami 17
Chargers 33, 49ers 12 ACTUAL: San Diego 48, San Francisco 19
Broncos 24, Raiders 3 ACTUAL: Denver 13, Oakland 3
Bears 28, Cardinals 7 ACTUAL: Chicago 24, Arizona 23
Ravens 17, Panthers 15 ACTUAL: Carolina 23, Baltimore 21
It's always challenging to keep up a great winning record, but this weekend should be an easy one. I've never seen so many obvious winners. The toughest appear to be Baltimore vs. Carolina and Philadelphia vs. New Orleans. The others look like "slam-dunks". Famous last words? We'll see; I'm going all out with nine picks:
Bengals 28, Bucaneers 10 ACTUAL: Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13
Cowboys 31, Texans 7 ACTUAL: Dallas 34, Houston 6
Eagles 34, Saints 20 ACTUAL: New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24
Steelers 26, Chiefs 14 ACTUAL: Pittsburgh 45, Kansas City 7
Jets 36, Dolphins 21 ACTUAL: New York 20, Miami 17
Chargers 33, 49ers 12 ACTUAL: San Diego 48, San Francisco 19
Broncos 24, Raiders 3 ACTUAL: Denver 13, Oakland 3
Bears 28, Cardinals 7 ACTUAL: Chicago 24, Arizona 23
Ravens 17, Panthers 15 ACTUAL: Carolina 23, Baltimore 21
Sunday, October 08, 2006
NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 8
I was out of town until this morning. So these are hot off the press at 12:59 pm on Sunday!
Well, a nice set of predictions; six for six! Which makes me 19 and 5 YTD!
Giants 24, Redskins 14 ACTUAL: Giants 19, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Jets 27 ACTUAL: Jaguars 41, Jets 0
Saints 20, Bucaneers 12 ACTUAL: Saints 24, Bucaneers 21
Eagles 24, Cowboys 21 ACTUAL: Eagles 38, Cowboys 24
Chargers 21, Steelers 13 ACTUAL: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
Broncos 14, Ravens 10 ACTUAL: Broncos 13, Ravens 3
Yeah, I know I'm going against my Ravens. But they aren't going through the whole season without a loss, and Mile-High Stadium is too tough for the weak (still growing) Ravens offense.
Well, a nice set of predictions; six for six! Which makes me 19 and 5 YTD!
Giants 24, Redskins 14 ACTUAL: Giants 19, Redskins 3
Jaguars 33, Jets 27 ACTUAL: Jaguars 41, Jets 0
Saints 20, Bucaneers 12 ACTUAL: Saints 24, Bucaneers 21
Eagles 24, Cowboys 21 ACTUAL: Eagles 38, Cowboys 24
Chargers 21, Steelers 13 ACTUAL: Chargers 23, Steelers 13
Broncos 14, Ravens 10 ACTUAL: Broncos 13, Ravens 3
Yeah, I know I'm going against my Ravens. But they aren't going through the whole season without a loss, and Mile-High Stadium is too tough for the weak (still growing) Ravens offense.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
Seasaw Battle Shaping Up in November
The upcoming election has been a hard one to judge, in particular because of a strong media bias against the incumbent Republican president. Just one month ago, bettors at Tradesports only gave Republicans a 38% chance of holding their House majority in the November election.
Then the Republicans went on a September tear. Just ten days ago, GOP chances had climbed to 58%. Why the turnaround? Pick your factors: falling gas prices; the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks; or maybe Hugo Chavez's rant at the United Nations.
How fast things change. Now, it's the Democrats' turn at a miracle comeback. Republican chances have slipped below 50% -- all the way to 46%. What explains the Republican collapse? The Mark Foley factor? Who knows.
Here's the good news: the most likely outcome is gridlock. When that happens, the markets historically have risen the following year by an average of 20%. In other words, if we can find a way to keep the government from doing anything, we are all better off!
Then the Republicans went on a September tear. Just ten days ago, GOP chances had climbed to 58%. Why the turnaround? Pick your factors: falling gas prices; the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks; or maybe Hugo Chavez's rant at the United Nations.
How fast things change. Now, it's the Democrats' turn at a miracle comeback. Republican chances have slipped below 50% -- all the way to 46%. What explains the Republican collapse? The Mark Foley factor? Who knows.
Here's the good news: the most likely outcome is gridlock. When that happens, the markets historically have risen the following year by an average of 20%. In other words, if we can find a way to keep the government from doing anything, we are all better off!
Friday, September 29, 2006
NFL Predictions for Sunday, October 1
Only picking five games this week. Looks like a lot of dog games otherwise.
Prediction Results: 3 wins, 2 losses (YTD 13-5)
Ravens 20, Chargers 10; Actual: Ravens 16, Chargers 13
Browns 21, Raiders 6; Actual: Browns 24, Raiders 21
Jaguars 27, Redskins 14; Actual: Redskins 36, Jaguars 30 (OT)
Bengals 34, Patriots 13; Actual: Patriots 38, Bengals 13
Bears 21, Seahawks 20; Actual: Chicago 37, Seattle 6
Prediction Results: 3 wins, 2 losses (YTD 13-5)
Ravens 20, Chargers 10; Actual: Ravens 16, Chargers 13
Browns 21, Raiders 6; Actual: Browns 24, Raiders 21
Jaguars 27, Redskins 14; Actual: Redskins 36, Jaguars 30 (OT)
Bengals 34, Patriots 13; Actual: Patriots 38, Bengals 13
Bears 21, Seahawks 20; Actual: Chicago 37, Seattle 6
Thursday, September 28, 2006
They Are Really Confused in Texas!
The good folks in Texas are really confused about abortion. Considering that the right to an abortion is the “law of the land”, and murder is against “the law of the land”, Fort Worth can't seem to make up its mind about which is actually the higher law!
From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
Police are searching for a 22-year-old Fort Worth man accused of causing the death of his unborn daughter last month by repeatedly kicking his girlfriend, who was five months pregnant, in the abdomen.
Homicide detectives obtained a capital murder warrant against Jason D. Nash this month after the Tarrant County medical examiner's office ruled the death of the fetus a homicide. . . .
"The next day police were notified that the unborn fetus had died," Sullivan said. . . .
Under Texas law, a person commits capital murder if they murder an individual under six years of age. An individual is defined as a human being who is alive, including an unborn child at every state of gestation from fertilization to birth.
Is the victim in this alleged crime an unborn daughter, a fetus, an unborn fetus, an individual, a human being or an unborn child? Don't ask us, baby!
From the Fort Worth Star-Telegram:
Police are searching for a 22-year-old Fort Worth man accused of causing the death of his unborn daughter last month by repeatedly kicking his girlfriend, who was five months pregnant, in the abdomen.
Homicide detectives obtained a capital murder warrant against Jason D. Nash this month after the Tarrant County medical examiner's office ruled the death of the fetus a homicide. . . .
"The next day police were notified that the unborn fetus had died," Sullivan said. . . .
Under Texas law, a person commits capital murder if they murder an individual under six years of age. An individual is defined as a human being who is alive, including an unborn child at every state of gestation from fertilization to birth.
Is the victim in this alleged crime an unborn daughter, a fetus, an unborn fetus, an individual, a human being or an unborn child? Don't ask us, baby!
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Al Qaeda Disputes Intelligence Report
While Democrats and Republicans fight over the content of an eight-month-old National Intelligence Estimate, Al Qaeda leadership is writing internal memos that bemoan the failure of their efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. It seems that their "Jihad" has run into something of a buzz-saw that has cost them thousands of followers. Funny how we hardly ever hear that in our newspapers and television news. For more about the enemy's point of view see: http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=40461
Monday, September 25, 2006
Miracle Finish Saves Ravens
Ravens Quarterback Steve McNair took control in the final 18 1/2 minutes of yesterday's game in Cleveland. He turned a certain 2-1 record, an ugly, dispiriting, bandwagon-halting 2-1, into a shiny, glorious 3-0. He didn't forget what went on with Baltimore's offense the first 41 1/2 minutes, or most of the two entire games before that -- he learned from it, he adjusted and he made it all right again. And when it was time to march from his 20-yard line into Matt Stover territory in the final three minutes on a hostile field, he made everybody around him swell with confidence, rise with anticipation, stretch that extra inch, hold a block that extra split-second -- even jump and shout and chant like college kids while the pressure is mounting and defeat is one misstep away, at the end of a game full of missteps. This what makes the Ravens different this year. This is what makes them 3-0.
For Baltimore Sun columnist David Steele's full take, read: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.steele25sep25,0,7824324.column?coll=bal-home-headlines
For Baltimore Sun columnist David Steele's full take, read: http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/football/bal-sp.steele25sep25,0,7824324.column?coll=bal-home-headlines
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Today is a Special Day!
Happy Birthday to a very special gal: my wife. Isn't she beautiful? What you can't see is that she is one of the kindest, most intelligent people you will ever meet. She runs her own consulting practice, serves as a church elder, has been an outstanding ship's crew for many years, and she works overtime to keep this lucky dog out of trouble. Next month we celebrate our 24th anniversary.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
NFL Sunday 9/24 Predictions
Eight games this week: Prediction Results: 5 wins, 3 losses (YTD: 10-3)
Ravens 17, Browns 7 Actual: Ravens 15, Browns 14
Bengals 27, Steelers 16 Actual: Bengals 28, Steelers 20
Bears 24, Vikings 21 Actual: Bears 19, Vikings 16
Panthers 34, Bucs 13 Actual: Panthers 26, Bucs 24
Jaguars 31, Colts 28 Actual: Colts 21, Jaguars 7
Seahawks 20, Giants 19 Actual: Seahawks 42, Giants 30
Falcons 36, Saints 21 Actual: Saints 23, Falcons 3
Patriots 30, Broncos 10 Actual: Broncos 17, Patriots 7
Ravens 17, Browns 7 Actual: Ravens 15, Browns 14
Bengals 27, Steelers 16 Actual: Bengals 28, Steelers 20
Bears 24, Vikings 21 Actual: Bears 19, Vikings 16
Panthers 34, Bucs 13 Actual: Panthers 26, Bucs 24
Jaguars 31, Colts 28 Actual: Colts 21, Jaguars 7
Seahawks 20, Giants 19 Actual: Seahawks 42, Giants 30
Falcons 36, Saints 21 Actual: Saints 23, Falcons 3
Patriots 30, Broncos 10 Actual: Broncos 17, Patriots 7
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Status Quo Election?
From Bruce Bartlett:
"It appears that congressional Republicans have dodged a bullet. If the election had been held six weeks ago, almost certainly they would have lost control of the House of Representatives and probably the Senate, as well. Since then, they have narrowed the gap with the Democrats to where it is starting to look like a status quo election in November, with no significant changes.
According to the Real Clear Politics Website, during the first week in August, Republicans were down by double digits in almost every generic congressional poll. In such a poll, voters are not asked about specific races, but only about whether they plan to vote Republican or Democratic. Both Fox News and The Associated Press had the Republicans down by 18 percent.
Fast forward to the latest polls, and there has been a steady improvement. The average spread is down to 9.5 percent, with Fox News showing only a 3 percent advantage for the Democrats. With gasoline prices dropping sharply, President Bush effectively playing the terrorism card yet again and continuing disarray on the Democratic side, it no longer looks as if this will be a defining election, as 1994 was.
I think this is too bad. The Republicans badly need a wake-up call. They have completely broken faith with the voters who put them in power 12 years ago and become indistinguishable from the Democrats they replaced on many issues. Does anyone believe we would have more pork barrel spending if the Democrats were still in control? I seriously doubt it."
For more from Bruce, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/status_quo_election.html
"It appears that congressional Republicans have dodged a bullet. If the election had been held six weeks ago, almost certainly they would have lost control of the House of Representatives and probably the Senate, as well. Since then, they have narrowed the gap with the Democrats to where it is starting to look like a status quo election in November, with no significant changes.
According to the Real Clear Politics Website, during the first week in August, Republicans were down by double digits in almost every generic congressional poll. In such a poll, voters are not asked about specific races, but only about whether they plan to vote Republican or Democratic. Both Fox News and The Associated Press had the Republicans down by 18 percent.
Fast forward to the latest polls, and there has been a steady improvement. The average spread is down to 9.5 percent, with Fox News showing only a 3 percent advantage for the Democrats. With gasoline prices dropping sharply, President Bush effectively playing the terrorism card yet again and continuing disarray on the Democratic side, it no longer looks as if this will be a defining election, as 1994 was.
I think this is too bad. The Republicans badly need a wake-up call. They have completely broken faith with the voters who put them in power 12 years ago and become indistinguishable from the Democrats they replaced on many issues. Does anyone believe we would have more pork barrel spending if the Democrats were still in control? I seriously doubt it."
For more from Bruce, go to http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/status_quo_election.html
Lucky Dog Welcomes Sean Quinn into World
A great and joyous event has occurred! Sean Christian Quinn arrived in Chicago to the rousing cheers of his many new relatives, of which I am one (a mere uncle). As you can see from the attached photo, he brought everything he needs to succeed. Namely, a real pair of assets! (Click on photo to see what I mean)
Ferocious Response to Pope's Comments
Now that we are in the fourth day of reaction to Pope Benedict's reference to a 14th century opinion about Islam, it might be worth noting when he actually made the comments. You see, it wasn't last Friday, the 15th. It was last Wednesday, the 13th, and it took three days for the anti-western media to stir up the pot enough to cause a "kerfuffle"and report it on Saturday and Sunday around the world. Check out the following:
http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/sep/06091805.html
http://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2006/sep/06091805.html
Sunday, September 17, 2006
NFL Sunday 9/17 Predictions
For Sunday, September 17 Prediction Results: 5 for 5
Ravens 20 Raiders 10 Actual: Ravens 28, Raiders 6
Cowboys 31 Redskins 21 Actual: Cowboys 27, Redskins 10
Falcons 19 Bucs 14 Actual: Falcons 14, Bucs 3
Vikings 27 Panthers 21 Actual: Vikings 16, Panthers 13
Jaguars 20 Steelers 17 Actual: Jaguars 9, Steelers 0
Ravens 20 Raiders 10 Actual: Ravens 28, Raiders 6
Cowboys 31 Redskins 21 Actual: Cowboys 27, Redskins 10
Falcons 19 Bucs 14 Actual: Falcons 14, Bucs 3
Vikings 27 Panthers 21 Actual: Vikings 16, Panthers 13
Jaguars 20 Steelers 17 Actual: Jaguars 9, Steelers 0
The Ravens Are Looking Super
Michael Wilbon, the football writer for the Washington Post has it right: " a bunch of teams -- 11, to be exact -- won on the road, but nobody made eyes bulge like the Ravens, who completely manhandled the Buccaneers, 27-0, in Tampa. Okay, the San Diego Chargers won on the road, too, by the same 27-0 score. But the Chargers beat the pathetic Oakland Raiders, perhaps the worst team in the league, while the Ravens beat a playoff team -- one that still figures to seriously compete for a playoff spot this season."
Read more here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-yn/content/article/2006/09/14/AR2006091401599.html
Read more here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-yn/content/article/2006/09/14/AR2006091401599.html
Gridiron Gang: a review
There's a great new, feel-good movie in town, starring the amazing "Rock" Johnson. Gridiron Gang is based on a true story about teenage boys in a detention center learning to walk tall (pun intended) as members of a reformatory football team. This movie is real entertainment. By that, I mean that it adheres to the first rule of good film-making: create characters the audience cares about. Combine that with some excellent game footage and a come-from-behind story line and you've got a terrific package. Go see it!
Saturday, September 16, 2006
John (I coulda' bin a contenda') Kerry demonstrates what a fool is
“I think the American people can understand I lost to a lie about Iraq and lie about me personally,” Kerry said while en route to Iowa. “I think people will say, Kerry was right about the war, he was right about health care, he was right about energy policy.
“I think people wouldn’t mind having a president who knows how to get it right,” he added.
For more nonsense, see: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200660915034
“I think people wouldn’t mind having a president who knows how to get it right,” he added.
For more nonsense, see: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=200660915034
Wednesday, August 30, 2006
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