Well, I was wrong. Let's hope I'm wrong again!

McCain couldn't pull it out. The vote was overwhelming for "change" of some sort. I guess I can understand that. It will always amaze me that Obama benefitted from the desire to "change", when he himself had never demonstrated any ability other than speech-giving. But now comes the real challenge. Can Obama govern in the face of real problems?

He faces extraordinary obstacles. I predict that by the time he takes office, GM and Ford will have declared bankruptcy, and the nation will be looking at a real depression, with several million expected to be out of work. Under these circumstances, Obama is most likely to go the FDR route of massive government intervention, which will prolong the downturn just as it did for FDR. In addition, I think we'll see another splurge of easy money from the Fed.

The last time the Fed decided to open the money spigot was on the eve of Y2K, which both Alan Greenspan and I bought into. We were wrong, of course. The difference is that my error just meant that I had a basement full of Spam. Alan Greenspan flooded the economy with dollars and pushed inflation up dramatically, along with housing prices and stock prices. A good case can be made that his mult-billion dollar infusion of greenbacks in late 1999 actually planted the seeds for the current financial debacle. It will be ironic if another such flood of cash triggers the worst depression in our history!

Back in the Game

Well, it's been more than a year. In fact, it was quite a year: financial collapse, extraordinary political campaign, remarkable turnaround in Iraq. Boy, what a year!

But now it's time to focus on the upcoming election. It's actually pretty simple: the 2008 election has turned from a referendum on George Bush's eight years into a referendum on Barrack Obama's claim to "transformational" leadership. Consequently, it doesn't make any difference who the republican candidate is. It's all about Obama.

Two weeks ago it seemed to me and to many, many other observers that Obama was cruising toward a landslide victory. Now, it's not so clear. In fact, I believe that McCain will win an unprecedented upset!

So, what has happened? In my opinion the Hillary democrats in several key states are having second thoughts and will, at the last minute, tilt toward McCain and against Obama. This is based on several reports that I have personally received that the Clinton leadership teams in Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio (and probably elsewhere), have quietly moved into the McCain camp because of concern over Obama's far-left positions and associations.

The consequence is that McCain will carry almost all the states that Bush carried in 2004, plus Pennsylvania! He may not win the popular vote, but that is meaningless. I forecast 281 electoral votes for McCain, and race riots in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Philadelphia!